Revisiting Stock Returns and the Mind: Digging Deeper into the Data

Abstract

I revisit the findings in Holmberg (2020) and address some of the concerns raised regarding the results. In particular, I analyze the distributional properties of the daily aggregate out of the Global Consciousness Projects data (Max[Z]), remove “bad data” due to malfunctioning random number generators and let global stock market returns interact with Max[Z] in a more tractable and transparent way. In practice, the "bad data" is removed by the means of truncation and a comparison between the truncated Max[Z] variable and computer simulated data reveals that Max[Z] deviates from the computer simulations in ways that seem consistent with the global consciousness projects hypothesis. It is also found that Max[Z] significantly correlates linearly with global stock market returns and that Max[Z]:s stochastic process itself is affected by market volatility. Since meaningful variations in Max[Z] suggest that the mind can stretch out of beyond the boundaries of our head, the results put doubt on the prevailing paradigm with regards to consciousness and highlights the need for much more research.